I haven’t actively traded since I retired four years ago. That changed on Liberation Day, when I was drawn back into the market, in hope of taking advantage of an expected crash. My short position, however, didn’t deliver much—Trump backed down too quickly on April 9 and I failed to realize the gain.
For most of May and June, I stayed on the sidelines while others were busy trading TACO. My thumb-sucking stopped when Trump managed to bomb Iran’s nuclear site and simultaneously avert a war. I was genuinely impressed by his ability to thread the needle. No U.S. president since Jimmy Carter had pulled off something like that.
I came to believe that Trump administration, working with tech entrepreneurs, could spark a major tech/AI-led boom in the U.S. market. So I started loading up on TQQQ in July. My current non-RE portfolio looks roughly like this:
- 90%: TQQQ/UPRO
- 10%: SHV/BND
It’s a sharp departure from my original retirement plan. If the Internet and mobile revolutions were 100-foot waves, the incoming AI revolution could be a 1,000-foot tsunami. The future arrived in Silicon Valley a couple of years ago—it just hasn’t fully spread to the rest of the economy yet.
Like the Internet and mobile boom, AI’s short-term promise may be overhyped, but its long-term impact is likely underestimated. For investors with a 10–20 year horizon and beyond, tech/AI seems a sure bet.
Of course, no one knows exactly who will capture the profits from this revolution. Back in the 1990s, people saw the Internet’s potential and went all-in on false promises like AOL, Yahoo, Cisco, Xerox, IBM, and Kodak, or even outright frauds like Enron, WorldCom, and Global Crossing. Many of those names didn’t survive. The true winners—the so-called MAG 7—were still beyond the horizon at the time.
I don’t know how many of today’s MAG 7 and hot tech/AI startups will still dominate 10–20 years from now. The greatest risk, however, is not taking the risk. Even though I can’t predict who will be the winners, it's likely they’ll become major components of QQQ—that's essentially my bet for the next decade.
All I can do now is to sit back and watch how reality unfolds.
Just wanted to say Im a huge fan of your blog. I have even let the LETF subreddit know about it https://www.reddit.com/r/LETFs/comments/13o80o3/all_in_tqqq_since_2012/
ReplyDeleteAnyway, please keep posting. Best.
I have the same feeling that this is the good point to long qqq/spy, but I am not sure about the exit point. It feels like from the article that you tend to hold long term after this entry(?), but given the valuation approaching the all time high and increasing long term interest rate, I’d be hesitant to hold more than 1 year. Not to mention holding leveraged etf long term. So I’d like to know your plan after this entry in July, e.g. on what condition you would sell. Thanks!
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