Sunday, May 14, 2023

Probabilistic Tunneling

Suppose that you own two accounts and you want to move money from one account to another, but there are some limits on how much you can transfer between these two accounts. 

This might sound like a weird problem, but the limit does exist in real life. For example, CCP government limits how much mainland Chinese can transfer from their CNY accounts to oversea accounts ($50,000 per year).  The US government also limits how much their people can contribute to Roth IRA ($6,000 per year). 

If both accounts can access the same market, it's possible to do the transfer w/o transacting between two accounts. It's called statistical tunneling. Here is how it works:

Say that you have some opinion on the market, You can long or short the market, buy or sell volatility.  The exact strategy doesn't matter, but you always execute your favorable trades on one account, and simultaneously execute one equal but opposite trade on the other.  

As long as you have more than 50% chance to be correct -- basically better than a monkey flipping a fair coin :-) , you can effectively move money from one account to another. The strategy will generate a loss on the source account , which may be desirable for tax purpose.

You don't need to be 100% correct on your trades because the combined accounts will never lose money except transaction cost. If you have zero or very low commission fees, you can trade as often as you want. 

If you're consistently wrong about the market, that's also OK. Just flip your trades and the money should flow in the opposite direction. So, you can overlay this strategy onto whatever overall portfolio you have, and the money will move from one account to another. 

Friday, April 7, 2023

Portfolio Migration

For the few who follow this blog, I started to implement the last step of my portfolio adjustment as planned at the end of 2021 

I plan to migrate 50% cash to 50% bond in the coming years. The pace of the migration will follow the pace of Fed's rate hikes. My target is to reach 50% TMF when Fed slows down or pauses rate hikes. 

Here is the timeline of my portfolio migration:

1. Dec 2021: 100% TQQQ/UPRO => sell TQQQ => 50% UPRO + 50% Cash - (This is triggered by my decision to retire, a major lifestyle change)

2. Jan 2022: Apply for HELOC as emergency fund - (Prepare for enduring 4~5 yrs downturn w/o any major lifestyle or portfolio change)

3. Feb 2022:  Say Goodbye to W2 - (Retire when my W2 makes no difference as planned in 2012

4. Mar -June 2022: 50% cash => build a bond ladder using 1~1.5 yr treasury - (I didn't go long duration to avoid the problem similar to what brought down SVB).

5. Mar 2023 ~: As my bond ladder reaches maturity, I started to convert them to TMF (and maybe buy some FAS opportunistically) 

Once the migration is done, I plan to hold the position for a while. I won't rebalance unless TMF spikes or UPRO outgrows TMF by a large margin.