Trump is set to announce his reciprocal tariff on April 2, a move that will reshape the global trade and mark a paradigm shift in the U.S.
The transition could be turbulent—potentially triggering a market crash, a brief economic downturn or recession, rapid Fed rate cuts, and eventually, a recovery. It’s starting to feel eerily reminiscent of late January 2020, that unsettling period just before the first confirmed COVID case hit the U.S.
My portfolio before:
40% UPRO/TQQQ40% SHV
20% Real Estate (Primary home + 2 rentals)
To brace for impact:
5% YANG
5% TMF
60% SHV/BND
20% Real Estate
Let’s see if reality unfolds as expected.
The market did crash today. Now, let's see if it continues to play out as expected:
It’s been clear for some time that the US equity market was propped up by unsustainable deficit spending and the manipulation of treasury duration. The interest payment in the US has exceeded the defense spending - a dangerous sign. The status quo cannot continue forever, something has to break.
=========== Update on April 4 ===============
China retaliated with a 34% reciprocal tariff. The ball is back in Trump’s court. Meanwhile, Xi has his own internal political dynamics to manage. Neither can afford showing weakness anytime soon. The trade war is likely to escalate before de-escalating. How this game of chicken will end is beyond anyone’s control.
The market continues to collapse today. These developments seem to align with the Trump administration’s objectives:
- The 10-year Treasury yield has dropped below 4%, which is beneficial for refinancing over $9T in Treasuries.
- Oil, gold, and most commodities are coming down, which helps lower inflation.
- The dollar is depreciating, which should, in theory, boost U.S. exports.
The next question is when the Fed will intervene. My guess is it won’t cut preemptively unless:
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The market downturn triggers widespread margin calls, risking a financial crisis.
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Clear evidence of economic pains emerges, though that may take months to develop.
YANG and TMF appreciate ~25% and 5%, respectively, but my bet is too small to change anything.
Hope to capture some of the upside in the future.
=========== Update on April 5 ===============
Weekend readings for the paradigm shift:
1. Scott Bessent on Trump's tariff policy:
2. Joseph Wang on the Fed, interest rate, and macro (https://fedguy.com/)
Russell 2000 circuit breaker hit in the overnight session.
CME group futures markets are putting out circuit breaker warnings for tomorrow.
It looks like the once-in-a-decade event I've been waiting for.