Portfolio Migration

For the few who follow this blog, I started to implement the last step of my portfolio adjustment as planned at the end of 2021 

I plan to migrate 50% cash to 50% bond in the coming years. The pace of the migration will follow the pace of Fed's rate hikes. My target is to reach 50% TMF when Fed slows down or pauses rate hikes. 

Here is the timeline of my portfolio migration:

1. Dec 2021: 100% TQQQ/UPRO => sell TQQQ => 50% UPRO + 50% Cash - (This is triggered by my decision to retire, a major lifestyle change)

2. Jan 2022: Apply for HELOC as emergency fund - (Prepare for enduring 4~5 yrs downturn w/o any major lifestyle or portfolio change)

3. Feb 2022:  Say Goodbye to W2 - (Retire when my W2 makes no difference as planned in 2012) 

4. Mar -June 2022: 50% cash => build a bond ladder using 1~1.5 yr treasury - (I didn't go long duration to avoid the problem similar to what brought down SVB).

5. Mar 2023 ~: As my bond ladder reaches maturity, I started to convert them to TMF (and maybe buy some FAS opportunistically) 

Once the migration is done, I plan to hold the position for a while. I won't rebalance unless TMF spikes or UPRO outgrows TMF by a large margin. 

Start a new chapter of my life

When I started this blog over a decade ago, may goal is to save enough to retire in 20~30 yrs. I tried to read books on investment theories and to talk to some experts/professionals. 

What's taught in school confuses me. If professors have any faith on what they're teaching, why don't they put their own money in practice? Most of professionals fare no better, either. What actually makes them money is the fact that they're betting and leveraging someone else's money, they can earn their 2/20 fees, fully participating in the upside but don't have to bare the full blunt of the downside.

I decided to ignore most theories and use a simple framework to beat the market. Assuming the long term return of market tracks the historical average of S&P, the leverage should help my portfolio to outperform the index. For most of  time, I only need to watch for the unexpected, once-in-a-decade market crashes. With some luck, I was able to to take advantage the past two crashes: 2008/9 financial crisis and coronavirus crash. The subsequent rebound and bull market carried me across the finish line at 36~37% ARR over 13 yrs.

In the past few months, I lowered my leverage ratio from 3x  to 1.5x* to prepare for early retirement. I plan to spend 1~1.5% of my asset annually. This budget ensures that I can sustain <22% market corrections(1.5%->1% = ~33% = 1.5 x 22%) and still maintain my current lifestyle. If the ARR of S&P for the next 30~40 yrs is >2%,  my budget (nominal) for living expense should grow a bit faster than the index. 

I decide to withdraw 1~1.5% rather than the usual 4% because I want some safety margin. I hope I can spot the next major crash (>22%) before it happens. In case I fail completely, I want a large cushion allowing me not only to live through a prolonged recession but also to participate in the rebound by re-leveraging my portfolio**.  

Therefore, my strategy remains unchanged: maintain a constant (>1) leverage ratio, cross my finger, and wait for spectacular crashes. The difference between my pre- and post-retirement period is just leverage ratio and margin of safety.

I'm trying to start a new chapter of my life, hopefully spending my time and energy on something other than making money.

* 1.5x is currently implemented by holding 50% 3x UPRO/TQQQ and 50% cash. The cash position is intended to limit the max drawdown to 50%  in case I fail to anticipate a major crash, e.g. UPRO/TQQQ suffer 99% loss.  I plan to migrate 50% cash to 50% bond in the coming years. The pace of the migration will follow the pace of Fed's rate hikes. My target is to reach 50% TMF when Fed slows down or pauses rate hikes. 

** If I can foresee a major crash is imminent like coronavirus crash, I may proactively de-leverage and even short the market. Otherwise, I just do nothing and wait for the next major crash. I will rebalance (re-leverage) after the crash. The timing of re-leverage depends on the timing of Fed's action. When Fed is all-in, I'm all-in. The re-leverage ratio depends on the scale of market drawdown. If the drawdown reaches epic scale, like great depression or dot.com bust, I'm prepared to go beyond 3x using futures.

Beat the market (Revisited)

A few posts from Bogleheads.org:

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=319283

On Investment Goal

I don't manage other people's money for living. Alpha, beta, or whatever Greek letters mean nothing to me.

The only thing I care about is ensure that the total value of my portfolio is more than the alternative (buy and hold the market) for every single day after the first couple of years.

Let M0 be the market at t0, and Mn at tn, and my portfolio is P0 at t0, and Pn at tn, my relative performance is pn = (Pn/P0)/(Mn/M0).

My definition of beating the market is prob(pn > 1) -> 100% and pn >> 1 if n is sufficiently large (20, 30, or 40 yrs).

I think the definition matters more to individuals investing their own money for retirements than any Greek letters taught in schools.

The Greek letters are there for the financial industry to justify reaping people off their retirement money

Coronavirus Impact

If you follow this blog, you might know that I've been expecting a major market crash in the past few years. It's why I named this blog "Expect The Unexpected". 

I've been resisting to make such calls in compliance with my principle of least action.  The argument is, if I have to act more than 2 or 3 times for the rest of my life, I wouldn't be acting on true once-in-a-decade or once-in-a-lifetime events.  

After I learned what's happening in Wuhan and its impact on economic activity in China. I made the call that a crash is imminent. I tried to warn some of my co-workers on the incoming impact. I got the usual Boglehead's responses. Here is an interesting exchange with an experienced investor*:

On Wednesday, February 19, 2020 at 11:36:11 AM UTC-8 XXXX XXXX (Me) wrote:

On Wednesday, February 19, 2020 at 7:56:22 AM UTC-8 XXXX XX (An Experienced Investor) wrote:

"investing isn’t about beating others at their game. It’s about controlling yourself at your own game.”

+1

Retirement planning isn't a race.  Too many people think it is one, and thus compare/worry about numbers that ultimately makes very little sense.

It is a personal journey, and the most important thing is to reach the finish line.  Whether you reach there in a rocket ship or a leisurely stroll, it doesn't really matter. 

You're probably right. In general, wars and pandemics come and go, and life always goes on. For those survive, this event will have little impact on their retirement plan 20~30 yrs down the road. 

But, for those with family members or friends currently locked in Wuhan, the psychological impact cannot be ignored when you see corpses are trucked out of you neighborhood because you'll start wondering whether you're going to have a retirement or not. When such videos are quickly removed from social media and WeChat accounts spreading such "rumors" are swiftly  banned, you cannot help asking, do I have the necessary information to make the right decision?

I have been watching this event unfolding for the past 3~4 weeks, mostly via private communication with friends. I find it takes about 1~2 weeks for the reality on the ground to be propagated into the mainstream media in the US. Few people grown up in the Western can imagine the draconian measures currently being taken in Wuhan/Hubei and contemplate how everyday life and economic activities are affected. They probably won't feel the real economy impact till Q1/Q2 corporate earning season.

I don't want to sound like alarmist here. I agree that most people in the US shouldn't overreact. But, if you have shorter time horizon and/or your investment is tightly coupled with China, you surely have to prepare for embracing the impact.   

Generally speaking, I don't time the market, but I do indulge myself once in a decade. If you can clearly see a rocket ship passing by, why not jump on board?

 * This post is back dated and made public only after I left the company.

心态

投资股市心态很重要。股市很liquid，assets are highly diversified, transaction cost is low，加杠杆方式各种各样，杠杆率可高达20X。而且盘子极大，你一天之内你进出几百万，对市场一点影响也没有。这些都是股市的优点，但是大部分的散户反倒被这所害，关键还是因为他们是抱着一种投机而不是投资的心态。


大家先来看一下股市大盘,比如标普500，几十年下来的长期几何平均收益，daily return大概是~0.02%. 但实际上股市每天的价格1~2%波动是常有的事，也就是你的大脑要应付1：50~100的信噪比。No matter what genius you are, the part of your brain in charge of fight or flight response simply is not equipped to pick up such signals from the noises.


如果你的进出股市的频率是以天或以月计，你不用计算机实现你的策略，而是凭感觉来买卖，那么你会很难挣钱。这并不是说这样的操作没有人会挣到钱，相反每天总是会有很多人挣到钱，但是这些人挣到钱的原因大体都可以归结为运气（概率），而不是他们自己觉得的原因。


能够在这个频段上consistently挣钱是一些HFT和model-based trading strategy, 前者为了几毫秒的竞争优势可以自己去铺光缆, 后者是诸如James Simon之类的牛人. 即便在他们之间，竞争也是异常激烈，每年的利润空间都一直在压缩。

个人投资也并不是没有优势的。对于个人来说，投资的目的一般是为了几十年后的退休，这期间还会一直往里放钱。而机构投资者每年每季度都有报表的压力，一有风吹草动客户就要提现，经常是刚好要加仓的时候。所以个人投资这于专业人士最大的优势是真正长期投资和 commitment of future cash inflow.

个人投资者最好不要快进快出，想着一夜暴富，这是拿自己的短处和别人的长处相拼。不管你用什么投资策略,你至少要觉得这种策略会适用的将来3到5年，甚至更长。如果你觉得3到5年实在太长没法预测，那么你的策略可能本身就有大问题。这其实和很多地主和做实业的time horizon相吻合，很少有成功的投资者在买房产或开公司时想着三五个月后就卖的。

解决了time horizon的问题，再来说一下怎么应对市场的波动. 首先你要知道: Nothing is certain in the market but uncertainty, if you cannot stomach uncertainty, stay away from the market. PERIOD.

有些人用自己今天挣了或陪了多少钱来衡量市场的波动，这显然是有问题的，因为数目大小还和你的基数有关。大部分成熟的投资者知道要看相对的percentage change,而不是绝对的dollar amount。但是如果这个绝对数字和自己每年的工资或生活费用相比太大或太小，他们还是会乱了阵脚或行事轻率，做出些错误的决定。

过去十年，帮助我应付市场波动的方法有两种：一是把价格上的波动转化为时间上的波动来思考。比如2018年年底大跌, 跌幅和跌速都让人心惊肉跳，但如果你换算成时间，那只不过回到一年多以前，换句或说，I am just as rich or as poor as myself about one year ago and my lifestyle has changed very little since then. So, what's the big deal?

又比如，2000/2 dot com泡沫破灭和2008/9次贷危机相比，前者跌幕比后者大多了，但前者只把时间往回推了4,5年，而后者推回了十来年，所以后者对社会,经济的影响远大于前者.换句话说，后者是比前者更难得的一次机遇。

每个投资者都希望自己是个时间旅行者，哪怕是只看到明天报纸的头条就可以发大财了。每次市场的波动其实就是一次短暂的时间旅行，如果2008/9年的你有机会告诉1998/9年的你，市场到哪了，只要你相信世界不会永远停留在1998/9年或回到更以前，你就会发觉这机会和你可以时间旅行看明天的头条没什么区别。同理，2019涨得这么疯其实就是开始透支未来,哪天要回归现在你就不会太惊慌。

我另一种应对市场波动的方法就是，每次我要进入或退出某个仓位前，我都会把支持和反对的理由一一列出来，最好是写下来，然后放在一边凉一凉。过上一段时间在去看一下，这些理由还有没有效。如果因为这段时间内发生的事情自己的想法有所改变，可能自己以前的想法欠成熟，或是自己在思维方式上有重大的盲点。

如果这样反复考虑下来，几个月甚至一两后还是觉得某个策略是可行的话，自己再去执行起来就不会患得患失了。而且十天半个月间的市场波动应该丝毫不会影响我决定的执行。

不少投资者的思维方式还停留在，“我觉得市场明天（或将来）要涨或跌，所以我今天要买或卖”。但这个世界 fundamentally uncertain. 所有的结果都是有可能的，因此我们必须Always expect the unexpected! 在想某个事件发生的可能性时，不能只是是或否，涨或跌, 而应该是一个probability distribution. 我们的投资决定应该是评估了所有的可能后，基于自己的风险承受能力做出的一个trade off, 而不是跟着感觉走。

财经访谈节目上的新闻，专家的意见不是瞎掰就是有意的误导，即便是顶着Nobel光环的经济学家也是如此。这些人对他们的观点但凡有点信心，他们早会在市场上提现了，哪有时间上节目挣那点小钱。不要去指望有谁能给tips发大财，唯一有用的tips是insider information,但没有人会冒着坐牢的危险给你通风报信，有人有时候蒙对了也只是道听途说的结果。

最后聊一下杠杆。炒房也好，办企业也好，一个主要的事情就是融资。owners一般不想冲稀自己的股份，但只要一借钱就绕不过杠杆的问题。

房贷是大部分人加杠杆的方式，但房贷的利息其实是比较高的，而且银行的rate滞后Federal rate cut 很多。我记得2009-2011间，我天天给银行打电话想借钱，但每家银行都忙着修补自己的balance sheet, 贷款的门槛很紧，你只靠房贷会错失很多机会。

当时有个朋友给我介绍了Interactive Brokers,如果你有比较高的balance，IB的margin rate只比federal rate高一点，而且它紧跟rate cut。如果你已经决定了要上杠杆，IB的 margin loan可能要比房贷合算，而且借款的多少长短很随意，不像房贷总是一大笔长期的commitment。当然你必须维持足够大的cushion，不要太贪心，否则margin call就麻烦了。

还有一种加杠杆的方式是ES-minis. 它成本比IB的margin loan还要低些，杠杆一直可以加到20X以上。有兴趣的朋友可以自己去研究一下。我在这就不多讲，免得把一些不适合做金融衍生物的人引导上破产跳楼之路。

我对投资感兴趣，不但因为这是我实现财务自由之路，而且是对智力的挑战，行为处事的考验.o In the world of investing, you have to be curious, humble and brutally honest with yourself. At the same time, you must also be a  decisive and displined practioner, able to execute your strategies with a sniper's precision, one shot, one kill.

也无风雨也无晴

不经意之间，自己已是四十好几，回想往事，有时难免感慨。 二十多年前，我大学毕业，大部分的同学都出国了，我没好的去处，只好呆在本校保研。毕业时人去楼空，孤坐寝室，真是一贫如洗， 四壁途光。

读了不到一年的研究生，才发觉国内科研水平实在太差，呆下去只是浪费时间，所以选择退学，赖在学校蹭住，考T考G，准备出国。 当时我父母在南方的一小城工作，每月工资就一百来块。

帝都万事皆贵，白居不易，为了糊口，只好先找了份家教。教的是一个外国小孩，他家住在俯视建国门的豪华公寓里，父母都很和善，我忍不住问他们房租多少，被告知3000美元一个月！那时美元兑人民币8点几，黑市十二三，这样的租金对我来说就像是天文数字。 

为了赚钱交报名费，我在三角地随便撕了一张招零时工的帖子，跑到国贸那边去应聘。等我换了几次公交赶到时，人家还剩半小时就要关门了。幸好面试的是一个人大毕业的小姑娘，当年没上我们学校可能是她人生的一件憾事吧，所以赶人之前还和我聊了几句。聊完说今天实在没时间了，要不你明天来吧。临走时还问了我一句，你POWERPOINT熟吧？我说“那当然！”

 90年代中计算机在中国还未普及，生物系的小孩很少有机会碰，我连POWERPOINT是什么都不知道。回来正赶上下班高峰，公交站黑压压一片几百号人。虽是起点站，挤了几次居然都没挤上去。当时北京已有凉意，一阵秋风吹过，落叶纷纷，飘零于高楼之间，自己也如浮萍，置身其中，望不尽天涯路。刚好旁边有一年轻人，也要去中关村，于是相约打车。他也是个身无分文的北漂，一路上大家幻想着怎样空手套白狼，并没有觉得自己穷，只有对未来无限的憧憬。 

回到学校就赶紧打听POWERPOINT是什么，找到一计算机系朋友那上机，花了一晚上恶补，速成POWERPOINT“专家”，没想到第二天面试的时候居然还让我给蒙混过关了。同时被招的还有一个清华的孩子，我当时还很纳闷：这公司谱真大，找零时工还这么挑剔？

后来才知道这公司叫McKinsey & Company，她们忙不过来，需找几个零时工加班。 负责招聘的小姑娘告诉我加班费一小时100人民币，刚开始我还以为听错了。看在钱的份上，我对加班特热心。有时干到半夜，只能骑车回家，白天车水马龙的大街顿时安静下来，想着这一晚下来和我爸妈半年挣的差不多，一点也不觉幸苦。

公司里那些哈佛毕业的海归一年几十万美元，心想大家的起点差别也忒大了！ 当时中国还在争取入WTO，但世界各大公司已在准备为进入中国布局，国内一些有远见的企业和部委也想走出去。在那打杂能看到很多咨询策划的案子。运筹帷幄之间，隐约能看到中国正面临几千年未有之大变局：前朝留下来的贫民窟中现代化的高楼如雨后春笋般崛起，新旧体制转变之间，老的一代被淘汰下岗, 同时给年轻人无限的机遇，真是无边落木萧萧下，不尽长江滚滚来。 

半年后，我和清华的小孩都拿到了留美的奖学金。那孩子是北京人，觉得将来国内的机会会比国外多，居然放弃了出国的机会！我从小在一鸟都不拉屎的山沟里长大，眼界和格局都不如别人, 我那时的价值体系里城市一定比乡下好，外国一定比中国好。于是借了几百美元，买了张单程机票，怀揣着做科研的梦想，踏上了美国这片陌生的土地。 

到美国没多久，很快意识到自己天资有限，科研底子太差，这辈子拿炸药奖是没戏了。于是决定退学，随便找个工作，了此残生。但生物没有PhD根本找不到像样的工作，即便找到，生物PhD的工钱的和墨西哥民工没多大差别。没办法只好找几本计算机书临时抱佛脚，去应聘码工。还好抓住dotcom的尾巴，在当地一IT企业找到实习的机会，希望过后就能转正办身份 。

我们部门在研发一个新项目，大家没日没夜在赶活，产品发布前一天公司宣布有重大决定，要大家去开会。CEO来了先是一大堆同志们辛苦了的BS。然后话风一转，说现在dotcom 泡沫破灭，大的环境不行了，公司决定关掉你们这个部门。 大家都懵了，我当时OPT马上就用完了，这要被雷了，我书读不成，美国也没法呆了。

会一开完我就去其它部门挨家挨户敲门，不管认不认识，不管什么活，我都愿干！居然还有一个部门被我说动，收留了我。接下来的几年就是一波接一波的裁人，坐我周围的人一个接一个的消失了，最后连当时决定收留的的 VP也被扫地出门。几经周折终于拿到绿卡，可以离开原来那家公司找工作, 于是2008跳槽到一家硅谷的公司。

本想干一二年站住脚跟后就自己出来创业。但马上又遇到席卷全球的次贷危机。美国很多买了房的人都在水下，大批公司破，大量民众失业，整个世界一片凄风惨雨，好像资本主义快要走到尽头的样子。 幸好我加入的这家公司发展极快，牛人很多，在那混能学到很多新的东西，于是没想到这一呆就是十年。

刚开始我们小组才几个人，干了几年混成小头目，有阵子还颇有点成就感。可不久就意识到我只不过一个庞大机器中的一个零件而已，公司里能人多了去，其他人在我这职位上可能比我干得还好。想明白了这点后我就不再追求所谓的career development，每隔一二年换个好玩的项目，闲云野鹤，安心做码工。 

在湾区几家大公司做技术的码工能混到Senior/Staff level很多，一年大概$30～60万， 所以每年一粒米的双码家庭并不稀奇。但加州各种税加起来40～50%，基本上半年就白干了。湾区生活费用也高，一般自住的房子至少要$2～4M,小孩如送私校，每人每年4～5万，在加上其它各种费用，每年能有10万左右free cash flow就不错了。  

我不大喜欢折腾房产，主要是嫌烦，我也不会挑股票，于是业余时就只能做做S&P相关的衍生品。昨天清理账户，发现净资产居然已过亿（RMB），自己都不太相信。小时候觉得亿万富翁是个遥不可及的概念，现在伸手可及了，可发现自己生活并没多大改变：还是朝九晚五，上下班忙着接送小孩。 

这世间总有些人喜欢比来比去，TF vs 码工，房产 vs 股票， 等等。其实每个人的能力，境遇，喜好都不同，你说你的鞋子合你的脚可以，非得争你的鞋子比别人的鞋子更合脚就没意思了。人有时觉得有必要justify自己职业人生的选择，其实只是自己底气不足。就像一个人走夜路，大声说话，更多的是为了给自己壮胆而已。 

至于投资，条条大路通罗马，不同的资产就像高速上不同的车道，不可能一条lane畅通无阻，另一条堵得水泄不通，短时间内可能会有些差异，但如果你跑的是长途，差别不会太大。每个人自己账面上的得失总是一清二楚，你的方法要是真管用的，闷声发大财还来不及呢，哪有空和人争口舌上的胜负。 

从大的方面讲，决定长期投资收益的无外乎大势，杠杆，和运气。过去二三十年，真的大势一是信息产业革命，二是中国的市场化。不管是在北上广深买房做生意，还是在硅谷做码工兼炒房。来钱比较容易的，大多都跟搭上这两辆顺风车有关系。相反如果站错了风口，如Warren Buffet收购的Berkshire Hathaway，即使个人最牛B也无力回天。  

杠杆则是个双刃刀。用得好时，你可能会提刀而立，为之四顾 ，为之踌躇满志；可这刀用得稍有不慎，一夜之间也可能会全功尽弃。所以一个人的成败，跟运气还是有很大的关系。顺风顺水的时候，最好别把自己太当回事，这样碰到逆境的时候也不会太失落。 

人生一世，求名求权求色的都有，为了生计，大家都得求财。 财富能会给你一定的自由和安全感，但不一定能给你生活里最重要的事. 再有钱，孩子还得自己养，老婆还得要自己睡吧。投资理财，就是一场远足，别太在意能走多远，重要的是经历风雨起落后，还有心情看风景： 

莫听穿林打叶声，

何妨吟啸且徐行。

 竹杖芒鞋轻胜马， 

谁怕？ 

 一蓑烟雨任平生。 

料峭春风吹酒醒， 

微冷， 

山头斜照却相迎。 

回首向来萧瑟处， 

归去，

也无风雨也无晴。

Unknown unknowns

I think it's much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong. I have approximate answers and possible beliefs and different degrees of certainty about different things, but I'm not absolutely sure of anything.  - Richard Feynman

One year ago, Donald Trump was elected.

During the run-up to election day, the world overwhelmingly believed Hillary Clinton would win. Market expected another 4 more year's divided government and business as usual.

So did I.

On the election day, Clinton's victory seemed a sure thing, at least as mass media reported, and the market stayed relatively calm.

After market's closed, votes got tallied. Clinton's victory's no longer a sure bet, the global stock market started collapsing. I thought about sell, but the future for DOW already dropped more than 800 points.

It's too late.

It seemed that my portfolio may suffer a huge loss tomorrow.  I went to bed and told my wife to embrace the impact.

The only mechanism for me to cope with the incoming huge loss is to comfort her that it would just push us back a couple of years. We would be just as rich or poor as two years ago, so no major lifestyle changes anyway :-)

As I went to bed, Carl Ican left Donald Trump's victory party and started binge-buying stock futures. It's reported that he made billions on the election day night.

When I woke up the next morning, I found DOW shot up more than 400 points. My thumb-sucking and inaction actually made lots of money this time, but I felt nothing but a sense of utmost humility.

How could so many people, including me, be so wrong for so long? Even after the result's clear, how couldn't I foresee how the market would react?

The fact that Donald Trump is like rock star in rural states was always there, but the information's not evenly distributed. When confronted with the fact, most people and media, including 538, chose not to see it.

Market may "always incorporate and reflect all relevant information" but people never agree what information is relevant. The interpretation of information's even harder. Not all people are able to reflect on relevant information.

It reminded me what happened during Obama's 8 years. For loyal audience of Fox news or conservative radios, it's hard for them to believe that Obama could ever do anything good for America. It's hard to imagine that the economics's not only recovered but grown steadily.

Similar things happened in 2017 to people who hate Trump. The world seemed to end soon when he took office this January. Bad news came out one after the other. Trump seemed to be a stupid crown whose's only job is to send out inflammatory tweets. They seemed perfectly fine to ignore the facts that government removed lots of regulations, passed tax cut and the market went up +25% since the election day.

Human are fallible. So am I!

It's what I learned in 2017.

============================

The market seemed to head toward a major melt-up in 2018.

I've been leveraging on stock market since 2009. My portfolio's grown to a point where my W2 income won't help me to sail through major crashes.

I keep asking myself. Is today like 1987, 1996, 1999, or 2013? is the melt-up close to peak or just started?

I have 2 more decisions left.  Is it time to make the second decision (to de-leverage)?

As the market inches up, I feel nervous like never before.

There are just too many unknown unknowns ...